RESEARCH & TRADE NOTES
Current thinking, documented.
Market context, portfolio decisions and lessons from execution—written before hindsight makes everything look obvious.
CHECKING THE THESIS · NEW FORMAT
The call stays visible after the outcome arrives.
Every public setup, followed through to the evidence that confirmed, refined or rejected it.
LATEST RESEARCH
Three recent perspectives.
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Earlier research.
The consumer gets tested this week
July retail sales fell 0.6%, but five major retailer reports can show whether consumers broadly pulled back or simply shifted spending between housing, discretionary and value channels.
The week inflation cooled—and oil started climbing again
July CPI, PPI and retail sales were all soft enough to support rate hopes. Then new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz reminded markets that released data describes the past while portfolio risk lives in the present.
CPI came in cool. My calendar trick didn’t fire—and that’s the lesson.
July CPI came in broadly as expected even though oil spiked during the month. The forecast was wrong, the portfolio cost was zero, and the gap between crude oil and consumer gasoline explains why.
Inflation week—and the calendar is playing a trick on us
July CPI arrives after the oil shock it measures has partly reversed. The challenge is separating backward-looking inflation evidence from the current price path without dismissing either one.
The economy lost jobs. Stocks went up. Here’s why that isn’t crazy.
July payrolls fell while stocks rallied and Treasury yields eased. The reaction makes sense once the discount-rate benefit of weaker data is separated from the eventual earnings cost of a weaker economy.
The mood flipped. The discipline did not.
The S&P 500 returned to record territory while AMD fell after record results. The common lesson is that market mood can reverse faster than a disciplined process should.
July recap: the month the system earned its keep
July finished down 0.30% after two stop-outs, ten portfolio transactions and a violent earnings week. The result was nearly flat; the more important evidence was that the process stayed intact.
The verdict is in: AI spending needs receipts
Microsoft and Amazon were rewarded while Meta and Apple were punished. The split shows that capital spending itself is not the verdict—the market wants visible economic output.
The verdict starts landing tonight—and Teradyne is the first receipt
The Fed, Microsoft and Meta put rates and AI returns on trial tonight. Teradyne has already delivered—but a good outcome is not proof that the entry decision was right.
Last week was the warning. This week is the verdict.
Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon report around a live Fed decision and June inflation data. The question is no longer whether AI is growing—it is whether the growth can justify the capital bill.
I bought on the market's worst day in a month
Ten partial positions, seven immediately underwater and 58% cash retained. This was not a prediction that the market had bottomed—it was a scheduled portfolio process operating during discomfort.
Alphabet passed the business test. The stock fell anyway.
Alphabet delivered exceptional growth across Search and Cloud, yet the stock fell sharply. The explanation sits in profit quality, capital spending and the difference between good results and expectations.
The most important earnings night of the summer—and why I’m staying flat
Alphabet and Tesla report into a market already questioning AI spending, concentrated earnings growth and rising oil. I’m not predicting the print; I’m waiting for the price it creates.
Semiconductors broke. This week tests whether the damage spreads
Semiconductors entered a bear market while Apple reached a record and small caps held up. This week's earnings will test whether that divergence represents rotation—or the beginning of broader weakness.
The inflation number everyone celebrated — and what it may be missing
June inflation cooled sharply, but much of the relief came from an energy backdrop that has already changed. Here is what CPI, PPI and bank earnings tell us—and why price structure still decides my entries.
Four Market Tests Arrive at Once — Why I’m Staying Patient
Bank earnings, inflation data, congressional testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and renewed conflict around the Strait of Hormuz are converging in one unusually crowded market week.
What I'm watching: SpaceX index flows and the semiconductor reality check
Two live lessons in one day: why index inclusion is plumbing rather than conviction, and why great earnings are no longer enough for chip stocks priced for perfection.
My H1 2026 take: AI got expensive, gold got humbled, and the consumer is the real risk
The AI trade did not die — the invoice arrived. Why hyperscalers sold off, why memory names went vertical, why I bought Microsoft into the wreckage, and why the consumer may matter more than the AI debate in H2.
Why I'm building a quality-value sleeve alongside the breakout system
Breakout trading pays the bills, but a long-term sleeve of quality compounders bought at fair prices smooths the equity curve. Here's the framework.
The 1% rule is the whole edge
Fifteen years in, the single biggest driver of the track record isn't stock picking — it's position sizing that makes any single trade irrelevant.